“The story of the third quarter is one of operational resilience and shows how hotel leaders are adapting to new realities,” Sarah McCay Tams, Actabl’s head of editorial. “Hoteliers started the year with ambitious revenue expectations, but market realities forced a recalibration. Operators are now focused on the fundamentals, like forecasting accuracy, cost control, and labor alignment, to protect margins and plan more effectively for the future.”
Budgeted RevPAR for the first three quarters of 2025 averaged $131.37, while actual RevPAR was $119.22, down nearly 9 percent. ADR fell 4.9 percent below budget, reflecting slower group and corporate recovery. Rooms revenue was 12 percent below budget, driven by weaker summer compression and longer booking windows.
Margins remained stable despite revenue shortfalls. GOP margin held at 37.7 percent, 1.2 points below budget. Mid-year forecasting narrowed the gap between projected and actual results, while hotels used labor controls, cost containment and more frequent forecasts to offset weaker topline performance.
Upper-midscale and upscale hotels posted the highest GOP margins, outperforming luxury and independent segments despite lower ADR. Hawaii, California, New York and DC exceeded the national average for RevPAR. Tourism-heavy regions remained stronger, while central states lagged.
Planning for 2026
The report outlines six strategies to protect profitability in 2026: forecast with precision by moving from static budgets to living forecasts that update frequently and incorporate demand, labor and expense data; price for profit, not just growth, by focusing on contribution margin and align labor to demand, tying staffing directly to occupancy and activity.
Operators should also plan costs dynamically using lean, base and stretch models that adjust to booking pace, inflation, or demand shifts; redefine growth by investing in markets and channels that drive contribution and track GOP percent as a core metric and build a culture of forecasting accuracy using forecast precision and labor efficiency per occupied room as key indicators.
In July, Actabl launched HotelData.com, a platform offering real-time benchmarks and planning tools. Its report draws on data from thousands of U.S. hotels across Actabl’s operational and financial platforms.
