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Baird/STR Index declines by 2.4 percent in October

Global hotel brands mirrored the S&P 500 with a nearly 2 percent decline in October

Baird/STR Index declines by 2.4 percent in October

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped 2.4 percent to 5,600, influenced by increasing interest rates affecting both real estate stocks and investor sentiment, according to STR. Moreover, U.S. hotel demand saw a 1.3 percent decrease in October, linked in part to a calendar shift.

This marks the third consecutive month of stock decline after a surge in July.


“Hotel stocks declined for the third straight month in October, aligning with broader market trends,” said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. “Elevated interest rates continued to drive performance, with real estate stocks bearing the brunt. Hotel REITs stood out as relative outperformers. The global hotel brands experienced a roughly 2 percent decrease, closely mirroring the S&P 500's retreat in October.”

In October, the Baird/STR Index fell behind the S&P 500, down 2.2 percent, but surpassed the MSCI US REIT Index, down 4.5 percent.

“U.S. hotel demand dipped by 1.3 percent in October, attributed in part to a shift in calendar composition,” said Amanda Hite, president of STR. “The impact, influenced by one less Saturday and one extra Tuesday – coinciding with Halloween – was expected. As anticipated, occupancy declined on the 31st, mirroring patterns observed in 2017 when the holiday fell on a Tuesday, thereby impacting the overall monthly performance.”

Meanwhile, the hotel brand sub-index fell 2.4 percent from September to 10,710, while the hotel REIT sub-index dipped 2.5 percent to 997.

In September, the Baird/STR Index dropped 2 percent to 5,739, influenced by higher interest rates. Nevertheless, hotel stocks outperformed their benchmark.

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CoStar, Tourism Economics Cut 2025 US Hotel Growth Forecast

CoStar, TE trim 2025 hotel growth

Summary:

  • CoStar and TE downgraded the 2025 U.S. hotel forecast.
  • Occupancy fell 0.2 points to 62.3 percent.
  • RevPAR dropped 0.3 points to -0.4 percent.

COSTAR AND TOURISM Economics downgraded the 2025 U.S. hotel forecast, with occupancy falling 0.2 points to 62.3 percent and ADR holding at +0.8 percent. RevPAR was downgraded 0.3 percentage points to -0.4 percent.

The last full-year U.S. RevPAR declines were in 2020 and 2009, the research agencies said in a statement.

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